Federal Election Winning Probability Trend
Daily probabilities of the ALP or LNP winning the next Federal Election, from aggregated bookmaker odds
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Daily market consensus of probabilities of winning the next Federal Election
Changelog
Manual changes to data collection or corrections
Today there was a data collection failure from one bookmaker. As an alternative odds were checked and added to the database manually. Note: When backfilling the market consensus calculations, rounding calculations have changed for some prior days, due to a lack of precision. However, the new rounding calculations appear to be an improvement as all percentages now sum to exactly 100.0%.
Discovered that there were 5 or 6 days that had missing bookmaker data, and thus average odds were not being calculated consistently. Thus, data for the missing dates was added manually, and then odds were recalculated and backfilled into the database.
Due to one of the bookmakers the app was relying upon dropping their next Federal Election market, we needed to switch to using the data from another, new bookmaker. This change meant new odds & calculations from 2026-01-22.